Since last update
MTCS Composition
Real Estate + Energy: —
Fiscal Pressure (OFP): —
Master Signal: —
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Master Territorial Confidence Signal
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Computing…
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Measures degradation of Russian energy infrastructure (RPI) combined with acute civilian stress in occupied territories (CCI). Rising ECS = refinery capacity falling, fuel shortages emerging, panic goods disappearing. ECS rising while permanence ratio holds = residents riding out a temporary shock. Both rising together = behavioral change likely imminent.
Energy & Consumer Stress
RPI × 0.5 + CCI × 0.5
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Composite of export revenue proxy, NWF liquid reserves, OFZ debt stress, regional budget cuts, and shadow fleet enforcement stress. Higher = more pressure on the fiscal stream that funds occupation administration and the war effort.
Occupation Financial Pressure
MTCS modulator: —
Feeder Signals
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State Commitment Index
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Track A — Private Market
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Track B — Residential Outcome
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B − (SCI×0.4 + A×0.6)
Negative = composite outpaces residential reality (fragility signal). More negative = more fragile.
Composite Spread
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Refinery Pressure Index
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Buckwheat index + fuel stress + grey market
Civilian Confidence Index
Crimea Residential Price Index
Biweekly secondary apartment prices ₽/m² · Source: Restate.ru — all 26 readings real · Mariupol new-build reference line added for context
Composite Spread — All Cities (12 months)
B − (SCI×0.4 + A×0.6) weighted by city · Above zero = residential confidence leads · Below zero = fragility zone · Solid = real data anchors (Mariupol, Crimea) · Dashed = estimated (Donetsk, Luhansk, Berdiansk)
— Solid lines Mariupol and Crimea are anchored by sourced data (PSB/ЕИСЖС disclosures, Restate.ru price series).
- - Dashed lines Donetsk, Luhansk, and Berdiansk spreads are calibrated estimates — improve with Домклик listing trend data and Avito rental scrapes.
Three-Dial Composite — —
SCI, Track A, Track B on 0–100 scale · Shaded bands = lo/hi confidence range where available
Composite Spread — —
B − (SCI×0.4 + A×0.6) · Positive = residential confidence leads composite · Negative = state+private composite outpaces residential reality (fragility signal)
Buy vs Rent Economics — Permanence Cost by City
Monthly ownership cost (2% mortgage, 35m², 10% down) vs typical rental · Source: permanence_ratio.json buy_vs_rent_economics
In a 2% mortgage environment, buying is cheaper than renting in every city except Mariupol new build.
Anyone renting despite this is paying a measurable premium for optionality.
That premium is the permanence uncertainty signal.
Permanence Ratio — All Cities
local_mortgages ÷ (local_mortgages + rental_listings) × 100 ·
Mariupol adjusted to 18% local buyers (PSB disclosure) ·
Dashed lines = estimated data
In a 2% mortgage environment, buying is cheaper than renting on monthly cash flow
(Donetsk: ₽4,500/mo own vs ₽17,000/mo rent). Anyone still renting is paying a
premium for optionality — that premium is the permanence uncertainty signal.
A ratio below 50 means optionality is winning.
Refinery Pressure Index — 12 Months
Capacity pressure (CREA) · Strike score (GUR/OSInt, weighted) · Export pressure (Kpler Novorossiysk) · RPI composite · All readings estimated pending live fetch
Civilian Confidence Index — 12 Months
Fuel price premium · Panic keyword score (Telegram) · Avito/barter grey market premium · CCI composite · June 2026: all three sub-indicators sourced (Chistikov/UNN)
🌾 Buckwheat signal: гречка (buckwheat) disappears from occupied-city retail within hours of genuine population fear — documented in 2014 Crimea annexation and Sep 2022 mobilization.
Grey market Avito activation (2–5× retail price) = official supply chain failure. Monitor alongside sugar, тушёнка, diesel.
If CCI rises while Permanence Ratio holds — residents riding out a shock, long-term bet intact.
If both move together — behavioral change likely imminent.
Occupation Financial Pressure
Export revenue proxy · NWF liquid %GDP score · OFZ debt stress · OFP composite · Threshold bands at 40/55/70/85 mark MTCS modulator step-ups